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Advance GDP estimates for 3rd quarter 2004

The third quarter of 2004 saw an expected moderation of growth in the Singapore economy.

Advanced estimates1 revealed that real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter rose by 7.7 per cent compared to the same period in 2003.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, Singapore's GDP declined by 2.3 per cent in the third quarter, reflecting a slowdown in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Gross Domestic Product at 1995 Market Prices
(*Advance Estimates)
(Percentage change over corresponding period of previous year)

 

3Q03

4Q03

2003

1Q04

2Q04

3Q04*

Overall GDP

1.7

4.9

1.1

7.5

12.5

7.7

Goods- Producing Industries
Manufacturing
Construction


3.3
-9.6


8.9
-8.1


2.8
-10.7


10.9
1.0


20.6
-5.9


12.5
-9.9

Services- Producing Industries

1.7

4.3

1.0

6.3

11.5

7.2

Growth in the manufacturing sector cooled to 12.5 per cent in the third quarter after an exuberant second quarter.

This is due largely to the decline in the biomedical manufacturing cluster arising from changes in production mix compared to the corresponding period in the previous year.

However, electronics, chemicals, precision engineering and transport engineering clusters all turned in stronger performances year on year.

Following an earlier contraction in the second quarter, the construction sector continued to slip by an estimated 9.9 per cent in the third quarter. Both public and private construction activities accounted for the further drop.

The services-producing industries are estimated to have expanded at a slower pace of 7.2 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter.

Slower growth in visitor arrivals held down expansion in the hotels & restaurants sector, while a drop in pace of growth within the air transport segment dampened growth in the transport & communications sector.

On a more positive note, vibrant entreport trade propelled the wholesale & retail trade sector. In the financial services sector, healthy FOREX and fund management activities propped up growth. Similarly, robust growth in business representative offices continued to support the business services sector.

The preliminary GDP estimates for the third quarter, including sectoral performances, sources of growth, inflation, employment and productivity, will be released in November 2004 in the next quarterly Economic Survey of Singapore.

1The advance GDP estimates for third quarter 2004 are computed largely from the first two months' data (i.e. July and August 2004). They are intended as an early indication of the GDP growth in the quarter, and are subject to revision when more comprehensive data becomes available.

Source: Ministry of Trade & Industry Press Release 11 Oct 2004

 

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Tuesday
12 October 2004