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Advance Estimates

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GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT 1990 MARKET PRICES
(* Advance Estimates)
(Percentage change over corresponding period of previous year)
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00*
Overall GDP 0.8 6.6 6.9 7.1 9.8 8.6 10.2
Goods-Producing Industries 2.1 7.0 7.9 8.5 6.6 8.8 11.4
Services-Producing Industries -0.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 10.3 7.6 8.8
Note: Figures for 1Q00 and 2Q00 have been revised.

The advance GDP estimates for third quarter 2000 were computed largely from the first two months, data (i.e. July and August 2000). They are intended as an early indication of the GDP growth in the quarter, and are subject to revision
when more comprehensive data become available.

MTI has also revised upwards GDP growth in the first half of 2000, from 8.8 %
to 9.2 %.

The preliminary GDP estimates for the quarter, including sectoral performances, sources of growth, inflation, employment and productivity, will be released in mid-November 2000 in the Economic Survey of Singapore.

OUTLOOK FOR 2000 AND 2001

MTI's usual practice is to revise its GDP forecast for the year and announce
the forecast for the coming year at the release of the Economic Survey of
Singapore in November. However, the Government has earlier indicated that it
will decide on the restoration quantum of the employer's CPF contribution rate
in January 2001 after the third quarter advance estimates are out in October,
so that employers and workers will have sufficient advance notice of the change and can factor the restoration in their wage decisions.

MTI has therefore reviewed its assessment of the economic performance and
growth outlook, taking into account the latest advance GDP estimates. Our
economic recovery has gathered strength. Growth in the first three quarters
averaged 9.5 %. Growth momentum, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, continues to be strong.

In line with the strong economic growth, job creation has recovered to
pre-crisis levels. Employment expanded strongly by 29,700 in the second
quarter, bringing the total employment gain in the first half of this year to
43,400. Retrenchments have also eased from 6,000 in the first quarter to 1,900 in the second quarter this year. A flash estimate of the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in September 2000 was 2.5 %, down sharply from 3.5 % in June 2000. This is the lowest unemployment rate in two years since it reached 4.3 % in December 1998 at the height of the economic crisis.

The external economic outlook remains favourable. The record-setting economic expansion in the US is likely to be sustained. Growth has slowed to a more sustainable pace but continues to be robust. Despite substantial capital outflows and the resulting weak Euro, the EU is enjoying healthy growth on the back of buoyant domestic and external demand. There are increasing signs that Japan has turned the corner and its economic recovery is on track. The IMF has projected that the world economy will grow by 4.7 % this year and 4.2 % in 2001.

There are, however, a few downside risks. First, oil prices have continued to
trend up. This could filter through to higher consumer prices and prompt
central banks to tighten monetary policies. Second, there is still a risk of a
hard landing in the US economy, which could dampen our external demand. Third, developments in the region, particularly Indonesia, could weaken investor
confidence and become a drag on our growth.

However, both the OECD and the Asian Development Bank have estimated that high oil prices will only dampen growth in the developed economies and in Asia slightly. And the risk of a hard landing in the US is also receding. Overall,
Singapore's economy should continue on track.

Taking these factors into account, MTI is revising the 2000 GDP growth forecast from 7.5-8.5 % to around 9 %. The preliminary 2001 GDP growth forecast is 5-7 %.

MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY
10 October 2000

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